Simulation modelling application for balancing epidemic and economic crisis in the region
The new coronavirus pandemic has had a major impact on worldwide economic development. Many infection-countering measures have imposed restrictions on economic activities. At the same time, economic sectors contribute unequally to both the disease’s spread and to regional economic development. This article proposes a method for assessing the consequences of partial regional isolation. Simulation modelling and system dynamics are applied to assess both epidemiological and economic consequences. The classic “Susceptible – Exposed – Infected – Recovered” disease spread model has been modified with the addition of a new group: Isolated Individuals. This modified model allows the size of the receptive population and the frequency of their contact to be regulated based on scenarios of partial regional isolation in the context of economic sectors. The model is tested in St. Petersburg. Changes in the region’s infected population are forecasted as the result of the establishment and removal of partial isolation measures in the context of individual economic sectors.
Economic crisis, epidemic impact, pandemic, simulation modelling, system dynamics