Digital model to assist in the process of managing social welfare of orphans
A simulation model for predicting the consequences of management decisions to improve the process of providing housing to targeted groups
Task
The project was implemented in collaboration with the Department of Social Policy of the Novosibirsk Mayor’s Office, which has a particular focus on the provision of housing for orphans and children deprived of parental care. Currently, the waiting list for housing exceeds manifold the capacity of regional executive authorities to ensure the fulfilment of this right.
In the context of an experimental initiative, the Department of Social Policy has identified a need to consider alternative strategies for addressing the housing challenges faced by vulnerable communities. Potential avenues for exploration include the expansion of housing certificates and the acquisition of housing units during the construction stage.
In order to make an informed decision, it was necessary to calculate the results of each of the scenarios in question, along with their respective advantages and disadvantages. In this regard, the use of mathematical modelling techniques within socioeconomic systems was deemed appropriate, with a particular emphasis placed on the experience and competence of SPbPU employees.
‘It is our hope that mathematical modelling will prove to be an invaluable tool in enabling us to select optimal impact measures in a relatively short period of time. In the future, we plan to extend the application of mathematical modelling tools to all target groups of our beneficiaries,’ said Olga Nezamaeva, Head of the Department for Social Policy of the Novosibirsk Mayor's Office, at the project presentation within Technoprom-2022, the IX International Forum for technological development (Novosibirsk, August 23-26, 2022).
Solution
A housing provision simulation model for orphans and children deprived of parental care was constructed using a set of tools developed by the employees of SPbPU NTI Center as part of the methodological and tool base for simulation models of socioeconomic systems.
The developed model of housing provision for orphans and children deprived of parental care will enable the Novosibirsk Mayor's Office Department for Social Policy to make evidence-based management decisions.
The model has been designed to fulfil three management functions.
- Firstly, it offers the opportunity to analyze the system in order to identify the impact of external and internal factors on the system's key indicators.
- Secondly, it enables the prediction of the dynamics of changes in key indicators of the system under different inputs. These inputs can be both managerial impacts on the system and changing external conditions or even internal stochasticity.
- Thirdly, it permits the optimization of managerial impact on the system, thereby maximizing the attainment of targets.
The model considers a range of financing formats, including fluctuations in the volume of financing, the issuance of housing certificates, and the investment of financing in housing at the construction stage.
The model illustrates the dynamics of changes in the queue size by various categories of citizens, the total number of citizens in need of housing, and the waiting time for the fulfilment of the right to receive housing, which varies depending on a number of factors.
The development of the model represents only the initial stage of a collaborative effort between SPbPU and the Department of Social Policy of the Novosibirsk Mayor's Office. This initiative aims at fostering the implementation of mathematical modelling in the social development prediction. The objective is to extend the current model to encompass additional areas of the Department's activities and their subsequent integration, thereby establishing a multi-agent interaction structure.
Project team
Project manager:
- Alexey I. Borovkov, Vice-Rector for Digital Transformation at SPbPU, Head of the World-class Scientific Center for Advanced Digital Technologies and the SPbPU NTI Competence Center ‘New Production Technologies’
Key contributors:
- Marina V. Bolsunovskaya, Head of the Industrial Systems for Streaming Data Processing Laboratory, NTI Center, SPbPU
- Aleksei M. Gintciak, Head of the Digital Modeling of Industrial Systems Laboratory, NTI Center, SPbPU
- Zhanna V. Burlutskaya, Junior Researcher at the Digital Modeling of Industrial Systems Laboratory
- Darya E. Fedyaevskaya, Laboratory Assistant at the Digital Modeling of Industrial Systems Laboratory, NTI Center, SPbPU
Исполнители
- Digital Modeling of Industrial Systems Laboratory, NTI Center, SPbPU
- Industrial Systems for Streaming Data Processing Laboratory, NTI Center, SPbPU